[red10minutes]

I saw that for the NBA finals 538 originally had the lakers at a pretty low chance of winning the finals, giving a higher pct to the heat/celtics. I wonder how these kinds of models are actually built given that most people I know bet money on the lakers.

[Valeron11]

You can take a look on xG statistics, its really helps in predictions

[red10minutes]

That was a great read, very informative, thanks!